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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

196 
ABNT20 KNHC 192349
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave is producing a small but
concentrated area of thunderstorms about 900 miles east of the
Windward Islands. Some slow development of this disturbance will be
possible through early Friday before environmental conditions become
quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Friday and
continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop this
weekend over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to become
favorable for the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone
while the low meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 20 Sep 2018 02:41:53 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

363 
ABPZ20 KNHC 192333
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E located over the Gulf of California.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slow
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development late this weekend.  This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is expected to form in a couple of days
well to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some slow development
of this system is possible late this weekend and early next week
while the disturbance moves nearly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (EP4/EP192018)

...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 19
 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 27.3, -110.5
 with movement NNE at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018  

890 
WTPZ34 KNHC 200240
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHERE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 110.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United
States monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E and
its remnants.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 110.5
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this motion should take the depression inland over
northwestern Mexico overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to dissipate on Thursday.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa, and 2 to 4 inches in Baja California Sur and
western Chihuahua. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are
possible in Sonora and northern Sinaloa. This rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Moisture associated with the depression and eventually its remnants
will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened risk of
flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018  

741 
WTPZ24 KNHC 200239
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192018
0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 110.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018  
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Recent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the
center of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern
Mexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas.  However, much of the
associated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico.
The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are
not as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed
peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is
already interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico.
Since the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of
northwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and
the depression is expected to on Thursday.

The main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall.  Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts
up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and
northern Sinaloa.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and
its remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened
risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and
Thursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018


976 
FOPZ14 KNHC 200240
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192018               
0300 UTC THU SEP 20 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics


Tropical Depression Nineteen-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 20:50:42 GMT


Tropical Depression Nineteen-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 21:21:41 GMT