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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next two to three days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak
surface trough.  Little, if any, development of this system is
expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast
tonight or Tuesday.  Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast
later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15
 the center of Humberto was located near 29.4, -77.6
 with movement NE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 988 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.4
North, longitude 77.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Monday morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast with a
gradual increase in forward speed over the next 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Further strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the northwest
Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.  Humberto
may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019  

526 
WTNT24 KNHC 160236
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HUMBERTO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  77.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  77.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  77.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.8N  77.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.1N  76.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N  74.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 35.0N  63.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  77.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

147 
WTNT44 KNHC 160237
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity
is now 65 kt.  This is also supported by Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of
the 2019 Atlantic season.  Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and
intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is
expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several
days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in
southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours.  In spite of the
latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows
intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some
baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the
north and northeast of Humberto.  The official forecast is a blend
of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very
similar to the previous one.

Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and
satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now
northeastward or 040/3 kt.  The hurricane has just rounded the
western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering
currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days.  An
east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward
speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves
between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with
the trough to the north.  The new NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the
latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 29.4N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 29.8N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 30.1N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 30.5N  74.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 30.8N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 35.0N  63.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 160237
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  49(79)   1(80)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  38(43)   2(45)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   1(24)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:38:53 GMT


Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:24:42 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160545
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located nearly 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with
an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form within
the next two to three days.  After mid week, this system is likely
to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east, and further
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the
system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15
 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -122.6
 with movement W at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 954 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 160231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 122.6W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 122.6 West.  Kiko is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
few days.

Kiko is a small tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 160231
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 122.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160232
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has lost some organization this evening.  The eye of the
hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as
symmetric as it was earlier today.  The initial intensity is
lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous.
Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful
hurricane, its wind field is quite compact.  Based on that data,
Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from
the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20
n mi from the center.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow
subtropical ridge to its north.  This motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected for about 24 hours.  The models all depict
Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in
response to a ridge building to its northwest.  After that time,
the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to
the northwest and others more westward or southwestward.  The NHC
official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving
slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several
days.

The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the
forecast period.  Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of
upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of
dry air.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 160232
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110  
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 125W       34  1   4( 5)  14(19)  13(32)   7(39)   3(42)   X(42)
15N 125W       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 125W       34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   5(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)  14(29)   5(34)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)  12(20)   8(28)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Hurricane Kiko Graphics


Hurricane Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:33:22 GMT


Hurricane Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:31:26 GMT