Tropical Sea Temperatures

     Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
     Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

 

     Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

     Satellite loop

 

     Current Pacific Satellite Loop

     Satellite loop

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Isaias, located about a hundred miles east of the coast of 
Georgia.

A surface trough of low pressure, located a few hundred miles 
south of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Marginal environmental conditions could allow for 
some slow development of this system during the next few days, 
with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week.  This 
system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the 
southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday, and then stall several 
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of 
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

...ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 3
 the center of Isaias was located near 32.0, -79.4
 with movement NNE at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 27

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 032042
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
 
...ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to
Stonington Maine.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Savannah River has been
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.0 North, 
longitude 79.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast 
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a 
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight 
followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the coasts of 
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the 
hurricane warning area this evening.  The center will then move 
inland across eastern North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move 
along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue 
across the northeastern United States Tuesday night.
 
Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum 
sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some 
strengthening is forecast later this afternoon or early evening, and 
Isaias is expected to make landfall tonight at or near hurricane 
strength along the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern 
North Carolina. Only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias 
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. 
mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) 
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind 
of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were measured by 
a Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
 
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
 
Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
 
Savannah River to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
 
North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight, 
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few 
hours. 
 
Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay 
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force 
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night 
and early Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL:  The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:
 
Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.
 
Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.
 
Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.
 
Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 27

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 03 2020  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 032040
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
2100 UTC MON AUG 03 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
STONINGTON MAINE.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS
* OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO STONINGTON MAINE
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF STONINGTON TO EASTPORT MAINE
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN 
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE 
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC 
AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  79.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  79.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  79.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.7N  78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.3N  75.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  70 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 44.5N  71.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 48.8N  68.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.0N  67.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N  63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N  79.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 032059
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
 
Isaias is undergoing its daily reorganization phase, with a ragged 
eye-like feature now showing up in NOAA Doppler weather radars from 
Charleston, Wilmington, and Jacksonville. The last Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance flight reported a peak SFMR-derived surface 
wind speed of 62 kt in the southwest quadrant around 1630Z while 
Isaias was experiencing a center reformation further to the east. 
Since then, Doppler velocities of 70-75 kt have been observed 
between 10,000-15,000 ft in the northern semicircle, but within 
reflectivity regions less than 35 dBZ, which suggests that a the 
reduction factor is likely less than the 90-percent value typically 
used. Thus the intensity is being held at 60 kt, which means that 
Isaias is very near hurricane status. Another Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance will be investigating the cyclone around 0000Z 
this evening.

Isaias is now moving north-northeastward 015/14 kt. The new NHC 
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias continuing 
to gradually accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward for 
the next 36 hours ahead of a powerful deep-layer trough and 
associated cold front. The cyclone should make landfall later this 
evening near the South Carolina-North Carolina border, and then 
accelerate north-northeastward at 25-30 kt across eastern North 
Carolina early Tuesday, eastern Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula 
Tuesday afternoon, and into New England Tuesday night into early 
Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is just an update and 
extension of the previous advisory track, and lies very close to a 
blend of the tightly packed multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX, 
TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.
 
Satellite animation and special 1800Z upper-air soundings indicate 
that the vertical shear across Isaias has weakened and has also 
become more southwesterly, which better aligns with the forecast 
track. Given this and the improved structure of the system, Isaias 
is still expected to strengthen and regain hurricane status before 
making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt 
system at that time. It should be emphasized that there is little 
difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane 
in terms of impacts.

After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to 
interaction with an unusually strong 100-120 kt jetstream. The 
expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation 
intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the 
mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 
h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the 
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed 
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation 
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of 
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including 
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these 
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it 
reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North 
Carolina in a few hours, and hurricane conditions are expected in 
the Hurricane Warning area this evening.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm 
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic 
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, on Tuesday, 
which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to spread across New England late Tuesday 
into early Wednesday. 

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will 
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant 
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through 
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible 
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick- 
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor 
river flooding.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 32.0N  79.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 34.7N  78.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1800Z 39.3N  75.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 44.5N  71.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 48.8N  68.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  06/0600Z 52.0N  67.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  06/1800Z 54.3N  63.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 03 2020


000
FONT14 KNHC 032042
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020               
2100 UTC MON AUG 03 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  16(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)  13(13)   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)  21(21)   8(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)  39(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)  52(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   2( 2)  56(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   3( 3)  63(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   3( 3)  60(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
PORTSMOUTH NH  50  X   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   6( 6)  64(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
WORCESTER MA   50  X   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
WORCESTER MA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   8( 8)  64(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
SPRINGFIELD MA 50  X   X( X)  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SPRINGFIELD MA 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   4( 4)  60(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   5( 5)  45(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   6( 6)  38(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   9( 9)  57(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X  22(22)  54(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
BRIDGEPORT CT  50  X   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BRIDGEPORT CT  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X  18(18)  58(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
NEW HAVEN CT   50  X   1( 1)  25(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
NEW HAVEN CT   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X  12(12)  63(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X  11(11)  60(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
NEW LONDON CT  50  X   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
NEW LONDON CT  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   6( 6)  53(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
ALBANY NY      50  X   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X  16(16)  52(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
POUGHKEEPSIE   50  X   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
POUGHKEEPSIE   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X  14(14)  55(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X  31(31)  47(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
ISLIP NY       50  X   3( 3)  23(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
ISLIP NY       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X  45(45)  35(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  X   7( 7)  23(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X  39(39)  38(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50  X   7( 7)  21(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NYC CNTRL PARK 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X  44(44)  32(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   8( 8)  19(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X  61(61)  14(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
TRENTON NJ     50  X  17(17)   9(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
TRENTON NJ     64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X  60(60)  20(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
NWS EARLE NJ   50  X  16(16)  15(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
NWS EARLE NJ   64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X  43(43)  15(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
ALLENTOWN PA   50  X   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X  70(70)   6(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
PHILADELPHIA   50  X  24(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PHILADELPHIA   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X  79(79)   3(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X  31(31)   6(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X  50(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DOVER DE       34  1  79(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
DOVER DE       50  X  33(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
DOVER DE       64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1  60(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  2  41(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  1  85(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X  45(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  3  86(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X  50(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  3  75(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PAX RIVER NAS  64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  3  88(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X  52(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  3   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  4  66(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
RICHMOND VA    50  X  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  6  87(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X  57(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  6  88(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
NORFOLK VA     50  X  57(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  6  89(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X  56(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 19  76(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X  52(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 35   6(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
RALEIGH NC     50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34 62  29(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ROCKY MT NC    50  7  30(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ROCKY MT NC    64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 22  44(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 73   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
FAYETTEVILLE   50 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 89   7(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
CHERRY PT NC   50 21  27(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
CHERRY PT NC   64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
NEW RIVER NC   50 62   9(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
NEW RIVER NC   64  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 86   7(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 13  13(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SURF CITY NC   50 71   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
SURF CITY NC   64  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 80   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
WILMINGTON NC  64 11   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
BALD HEAD ISL  64 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 18   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
LITTLE RIVER   64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 38   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics


Tropical Storm Isaias 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 20:44:20 GMT


Tropical Storm Isaias 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 21:24:56 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics


Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 21:16:01 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Tropical Storm Isaias Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 21:51:33 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Tropical Storm Isaias Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 03 Aug 2020 20:42:44 GMT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  505 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  507 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Issued at  519 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Raleigh, NC

Issued at  521 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  524 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Baltimore/Washington

Issued at  533 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Caribou, ME

Issued at  534 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at  540 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Portland, ME

Issued at  551 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  556 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at  634 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at  657 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Local Statement for Albany, NY

Issued at  705 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032300
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 03 Aug 2020 23:05:41 GMT