Tropical Sea Temperatures

     Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
     Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

 

     Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

     Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

     Current Pacific Satellite Loop

     Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181113
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms with winds of around 30 mph on its northeast side.
Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic.  After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become
less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a
frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not
expected.  For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 18 Nov 2019 11:47:09 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

692 
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twenty-One-E, located well south of the southern coast of
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY...
 As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18
 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 12.2, -105.0
 with movement NW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019  

166 
WTPZ31 KNHC 180831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 105.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 105.0
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected for
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a remnant by early Tuesday and
dissipate by Wednesday night or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 180831
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019
0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 105.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 105.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180833
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center
location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep
convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature
lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the
depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed
only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial
intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the
entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the
system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global
models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be
surprising if this happened much sooner.

The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but
based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite
fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be
steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the
north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019


174 
FOPZ11 KNHC 180831
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019               
0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics


Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 08:32:50 GMT


Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 09:24:06 GMT